As the country grapples with the earthquake’s devastation and political uncertainty, Gabriel Pineda (Political Movement for Unity in Venezuela) analyzes the transition scenarios. He appeals to European citizens: support firm diplomacy to restore democracy
Following the earthquake, what were the most serious and complex consequences for Venezuela’s institutional situation? Specifically, how do these impacts relate to the events that led to the change of government?
We must begin by assuming that, after January 3, Venezuela entered a 180-day transition period during which the vice president assumed leadership of the highest court. Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution is clear regarding presidential vacancies, whether temporary or permanent. Today, just over a month after the earthquake and with the 180-day term expiring on July 3, 2026, the country finds itself in a kind of power vacuum . It is a complex situation: the system imposed on Venezuela, so-called “socialism,” has not only eliminated the separation of powers, but has now concentrated them in the hands of three people: Delcy Rodríguez as president, her brother Jorge Rodríguez as head of the National Assembly, and Diosdado Cabello as Minister of the Interior and Justice, who controls the entire police apparatus built by the regime over the past 28 years.
In this context, the question of the legitimacy of power and its origins comes into play. Maduro has been accused of stealing the July 28, 2024, elections, and María Corina Machado succeeded in exposing the regime’s system of fraud. Nevertheless, on January 10, Nicolás Maduro was sworn in, effectively carrying out a coup that led to the imprisonment of countless people.
What scenarios are emerging now?
Several scenarios are being considered. The one gaining most traction is being promoted by the United States , which exercises a sort of undeclared tutelage over Venezuela. This plan calls for Dinorah Figuera, president of the 2015 Assembly, to lead a dialogue with the current Assembly led by Jorge Rodríguez aimed at holding new elections within a year. This negotiating table would exclude key figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, the president elected in 2024.
On the other side, there is the civil society front, organized by the former magistrate Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, which is calling for the establishment of a government council: from a legal point of view, in fact, this would be the constitutionally foreseen step once the 180 days have expired.
What is the situation regarding international aid? Has the earthquake tragedy led to any easing of sanctions or restrictions imposed by other countries?
In the early stages of the emergency, international relief efforts came primarily from Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Spain, Uruguay, El Salvador, and the United States, as well as from multilateral organizations such as the UN and the International Red Cross. However, the initial response from the state—and the interim government—proved to be entirely embryonic, incapable of timely implementation and exposing the dismantling of civil defense over the years. While international organizations arrived on the ground providing medicines, food, tents, electricity generators, and machinery , several countries—along with Venezuelan and international volunteer relief workers—denounced the growing obstacles placed by government authorities. This attempt to centralize relief efforts and pass them off as state aid ultimately slowed relief operations.
What about the US sanctions?
As for US sanctions, they have not been lifted so far, continuing to burden the daily lives of the population, considering that a basic salary does not exceed $10 a month. The country has received more than $ 13 billion , which the United States is holding in a fund, so this amount has not yet been used to alleviate the economic situation. Banks still lack the capacity to grant loans or process international transfers.
Despite the crisis caused by the earthquake, can we hope that Venezuela will fulfill its promises of a democratic process, starting with free and open elections?
The earthquake has revealed a situation that has been on the table for years: the feasibility of a democratic process and the holding of free elections in Venezuela do not depend on a natural disaster, but rather on the unraveling of the legal and political issues that still persist in the country. On July 28, 2026, two demonstrations were held in Caracas: one called by the opposition and María Corina Machado, reaffirming the victory in the July 28, 2024, elections, where Edmundo González was elected, and demanding transparency in the United States’ proposal for the transition process; the other, called by the government faction led by Diosdado Cabello, to celebrate the birth of Hugo Chávez, with the aim of reviving Chavismo ahead of August, when a dialogue under the auspices of the United States is expected to begin.
How can we, European citizens, concretely support the aspirations of Venezuelan civil society towards a true path of national reconciliation, respect for fundamental rights, inclusion, and social development?
Today, a strong political weariness prevails among Venezuelans: much has been asked of the international community, but in the end, we ended up making deals with the regime. Nonetheless, it remains essential to reiterate our request to the international community: to demand active diplomacy within the European Parliament and individual national governments . It is necessary to urge European Union parliamentarians and foreign ministries to maintain a firm line, linking any institutional recognition to rigorous compliance with the Venezuelan Constitution —starting with the reinstatement of the electoral process, the release of political prisoners, and respect for the separation of powers.
What dreams and perspectives do you share with the young Venezuelans involved in the Political Movement for Unity?
Our goal is to continue fostering dialogue among young people, laying the foundations for restoring democracy and achieving, as quickly as possible, free elections, where every single vote counts again and we Venezuelans regain control of our country. Hoping that the dialogue starting in August will chart a concrete path, we, the Venezuelan people, yearn to reunite with all those who have distanced themselves. Amid the migration crisis, political prisoners, and families torn apart by ideological divisions, our true desire is to meet again.